Tonight we come to the 2nd to the last of the nightly reports where I continue to track the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters. Due to The Who concert tomorrow night I might no be able to produce a complete report early because I am sure the ABC/WaPo poll will be coming out well after the time we need to be battling traffic into DC.

The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like party ID affiliation in their turnout models.  The ‘extended’ family of polls are based on the unproven assumption this year’s turnout will favor the Dems by 2-3 times the highest historic advantage ever seen in memory. Over the years there have been times when the Democrats have seen up to a 4% edge in voter turnout. The polls in the ‘extended’ family assume a Democrat edge of 8-12% in their turnout models – crazy, eh?

Strata-Sphere Extended: Ob +9%

10_27_08 = Ob +7.3%
10_28_08 = Ob +6.3%
10_29_08 = Ob +6.0%
10_30_08 = Ob +9.7%
10_31_08 = Ob +7.3%
11_01_08 = Ob +8% (note: corrected)

First, for the Obama supporters we provide the ‘extended’ poll of polls. This group includes the following daily tracking polls (with today’s horse race numbers in parentheses): Rasmussen Reports (Ob +7), Gallup (Expanded) (Ob +9) and ABC News/Wash Post (Ob +11). Therefore the Extended Poll average for today is Obama +9%.

If we include in the CBS News (Ob+13), CNN/Opinion Research (Ob +7) and Pew Research (Ob +7), which came out since the last Nightly Bi-Poller, the ‘extended average is also 9%. This gives the ‘extended’ poll family a very consistent average.

Strata-Sphere Traditional: Ob +5.25%

10_27_08 = Ob +4.8%
10_28_08 = Ob +4.0%
10_29_08 = Ob +4.2%
10_30_08 = Ob +5.0%
10_31_08 = Ob +6.0%
11_01_08 = Ob +6.75%

Now, for the McCain supporters we have the historically proven polling method. This group includes the following daily tracking polls (with today’s horse race numbers in parentheses): Gallup (Traditional) (Ob +8), Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby (Ob +6), Diageo/Hotline (Ob +5), and IBD/TIPP (Ob +2). Note that GWU/Battlegrounddoesn’t produce a poll on weekends. Therefore the Traditional Poll average for today is Obama +5.25%.

If we asume GWU/Battleground is as steady as usual at Ob +4, then the ‘traditional’ poll family average would be 5.0%. If we remove the completely dodgy Gallup poll from the ‘traditional’ average we get 4.33% with just the three polls, and 4.25% if I factor in an estimated Ob +4 for GW/Battleground.

Therefore the range for the traditional family runs from Ob +4.25-5.25%, which borders on a statistical tie.

RCP National Average: Ob +6.6%

The RCP average does a great job of splitting the difference between the two families. But as I have noted, only one will be right, there will be no splitting the pie. One group is right, the other wrong.

Analysis:

Something bizarre is still going on with the Gallup polls. Yesterday their 3 supposedly different turnout models all gave the same answer. Today the ‘traditional dropped two points overnight. I am about ready to just junk the Gallup polls, but since I only have one more day to go I have gone to giving ranges for the different families depending on what polls I include.

The Traditional poll family is tightening down to a statistical tie. Tonight it is sitting around Ob +4.75% (actually +4.25-5.25%). The ‘extended family indicates an Obama blow out at Ob +9%. Both cannot be true.  We will know Wednesday which pollsters will have lost the reputations, but only one group will be right when the votes finally get counted.

I want to also note the latest state polls coming out, which show a tie in the battleground states, which indicates a last minute surge to McCain:

Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5

As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.

If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win.   But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can’t bring themselves to support a black candidate  but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.

First, these polls indicate the ‘traditional’ family of nation polls is more likely to be proven right since a +9% lead nationally by Obama would mean few if any of these states would now be tied. If you want an independent validation of the national polls, these state polls indicate the ‘extended’ polls in the RCP average are fantasies, not reality.

Back to these state polls. Since the African American voters have already come out in the early voting they will obviously be a smaller segment of the remaining vote. This leaves Obama without this key demographic to save his campaign. Also, note how all the Obama levels are well below the 50% mark and the undecideds can easily lift McCain over the top in all but one state (Colorado).

Given the importance of this election and the record turnout from both sides in the early voting, hoping the GOP side will sit out is a clear sign of desperation by the Politico. If anything, there is a good chance Obama’s wobbly new voters will feel comfortable in his inevitability to not vote. Obama has energized both left and right, and Palin has energized the right. My guess is the shrinking continues and McCain steals PA, OH and VA on his way to winning.

Previous Posts:

The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 11_01_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_31_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_30_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_29_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_28_08
The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_27_08
Bi-Poller Part II
Bi-Poller

Tags: Nightly Bi-Poller, Polls