Sep 07 2010
Numerous Polls Predict Huge GOP Gains This November
The first polls of the election season are coming in and the numbers are so bad it might be a good idea to put the left on suicide watch. No one living has ever seen the types of numbers we are seeing in the polls for the midterms (though no one should be surprised by results some of us predicted over a year ago). The nation is not far left in its views, it is right of center. The nation abhors parties or politicians who make false promises, who make failed promises or who use their position if public trust for greed (theirs or their cronies). Do all three and you hit the trifecta!
But America also abhors jarring shifts in policies. Americans broadly like America and are proud of being a part of it. They always want some adjustments, but by and large they have been happy with it. When things fail, they want a correction – not massive change. Make foolish changes and the people will fire you faster than you can say ‘hyper partisan’.
The liberals either never understood this or did not care. When they took the reigns of power in 2009 they began a massive upheaval to change the essence of America and its uniquely independent people. Now America is fighting back, ready to stop the liberal ‘change’ they never agreed to, never wanted and now know will never work. The Democrats went beyond America’s zone of tolerance, and they are paying the price.
The first poll to shock the Political Industrial Complex was the Gallup congressional generic ballot poll among registered voters, that showed the GOP leading 51-41%. This was a GOP lead the size of which Gallup had never seen in all its years of polling. Worse yet for the Dems, it was not a likely voter model. This more accurate model would have produced a lead of +14% – a result that would indicate historic gains in the house, well beyond the 39 seats needed to take control.
Then came news that the Senate was also in play, with 11 of the  top 12 senates seats likely to switch parties now on the Democrat side with 6-7 already gone. Many political prognosticators finally had seen enough data to note the Senate was on the verge of being lost to the Dems – a concept that was laughable only a few weeks ago. The house all but gone, the governorships all but gone, the senate in play – could it get any worse? In a word: Yes.
Yesterday the avalanche picked up again with CNN noting the GOP had a +7% lead on the generic ballot question, Rasmussen came out with +12%. In that CNN poll, the GOP led the Dems with independent voters by a staggering 30%. These two polls were indicating the Gallup poll may not be much of an outlier after all, and more an indication that the Democrat Party had so alienated itself from the voters it had sealed its fate with uncommon force.
Today, more polls are coming out confirming the situation, leaving the Dems without much hope or opportunity to stop the pending political slaughter. The latest WSJ-NBC news poll shows the GOP leading among likely voters 49-40%. Update: MSNBC is noting that the likely voter number of +9% in the WSJ-NBC poll goes to a mind boggling +18% if you look at those highly interested in voting! – end update
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows the GOP leading among likely voters 53-40%. To summarize, the latest polls on the generic ballot have shown:
- Gallup +10%
- Rassmussen +12%
- CNN +7%
- WSJ-NBC +9%
- WaPo-ABC +13%
Only Gallup is of registered voters, not likely voters. The average across these polls in terms of GOP lead is 10.2% – which under various election models would indicate a landslide the likes of which has not been seen in living memory (60-80 seats, or more). The problem for the Dems is their past success. They begin with 50 seats they took in recent election cycles that are nominally GOP. Once you get beyond these 50, there are a lot of normal Democrat seats now at risk. In 1994 the Dems lost 54 seats. In 2010 that appears to be on the low end of possibilities.
I expect a lot of denial on the left, mixed in with a lot of anger and finger pointing at everyone else except the source of this force. The Dems succumbed to the liberal element of their party, followed their lead and are going to be rejected by a country not interested in liberal fantasies or policies. The result was never really in question – was it?
A few final thoughts on the disparity in voter intensity. I think many of the pro-democrat supporters who are not enthusiastic may also be uncomfortable with the massive upheaval wrought by the Dems in less than two years. You can be pro this or that, but the pace of going down some of these paths, even for strong supporters, must be measured. Rushing headlong without any thought of the consequences (i.e., health care reform, global warming proposals) can push many supporters into the opposition just due being reckless. You see this with pro-life views on the right. Many people are pro-life but are not ready to put a blanket law in place removing this tough decision from the family and their doctor. There  are boundaries, not just in scope, but also in implementation. I think the liberals have so shocked and disappointed the nation that many left of center voters are now hesitating, and withholding their support for more upheaval.
Democrat plans for this fall:
1) Denial
2) Anger
3) Bargaining
4) Depression
5) Acceptance
#1 will predominate until November, and many will spend significant parts of their lives stuck in #’s 2 & 4.
What’s going to be fun will be to watch the Dems turn on Obama – no one is hated as much as a false messiah, and when they realize after November that he was responsible for destroying the best chance they ever had – it will be time to break out the popcorn and watch the fireworks!!!
He just *thinks* he’s being talked about like a dog – just wait!
Pelosi was in stage 1 for a long time, then to stage 2 when she displayed her anger towards Gibbs. Now she may be in stage 3 when NYT’s triage article showed that she’s moving from stage one to stage 3 where she’s bargaining the redistribution of money from the Democratic losers to those with better odds.
As for the other Dems, they’re probably already at stage 3, leading to stage 4.
Powerline blog has an interesting post about the original source of “being talked like a dog”…a Jim Hendrix song, “Stone Free”.
I think the Dems have already started to turn on Obama. The Dems’ reax to Obama’s new 50B stimulus was wariness. Seems that they don’t want to deal with another massive or controversial legislation after they go back to WDC, especially with whatever Reid and Pelosi have on their plate. And this is while they are campaigning at home.
Last paragraph: are you referring to self-regulation with accountability and responsibility versus government regulation with no individual accountability and responsibility?
AJ,
You are looking here at the Progressive Left’s “Kobiashi Maru Scenario.”
Nothing they do will prevent them from losing the ship (Power in Congress) and how they lose is the test of character they have never had to face before.
It was inevitable that Democrats would start openly attacking the American people of the utter and complete rejection of their policies.
Reagan said “People are policy.”
The correlary is that if you reject a policy that the people implementing it truly believe in, you are rejecting _THEM_.
Mature, professional, people will recognize it is not personal, because they have developed the personal humility to recognize that fact.
The Obama generation — and younger Democrats of the same Leftist-Progressive Ivy League backgrounds — lack the humility to separate the personal from the political.
This means they are going to attack the American people out of the pain of their rejection and Obama in particular is going to use the “Moral superiority card ” (civil rights/race/etc) because that is all they collectively know how to do when they are behind and want to win.
The problem with that scenario is that it is as if we just elected JFK, the first catholic president, and he appointed people who attacked protestants non-stop to include discriminating against them in employment and law enforcement.
Black Americans and their elected politicians are going to be facing that exact scenario.
It is well poisoning of the first degree.
IMO, we are going to see it non-stop for years after the next president is inaugurated in Jan 2013…and much worse besides.
Not only will the Dems start to attack the Americans for their conservative principles (e.g., individualism; not that extreme flavor) but we’re starting to see the same Dems attacking each other.
Re: http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/06/praise-with-faint-damning/
This may increase over time.
I think the conservative bloggers are already preparing themselves for the onslaught of attacks from these Dems. I just learned that the teapartytracker.org is funded by Soros. Shouldn’t be all that surprising.
The question is…there is supposed to be several internal fights inside the Republican Party in WDC, how bad these fights will be or will they turn around to unite themselves or not?
Will the November elections be such a huge wave, Hayes’ bigger than the tsunami wave, force the Republican party to unite themselves, including Snowe and Collins after realizing that they only have one chance left to take back our country?
I understand that getting our Republican politicians to sign up for NO earmarks is a difficult process. There are still too many Republican politicians that still want earmarks.
WWS
Democrat plans for this fall:
1) Denial
2) Anger
Number 2 will soon be on display (it’s actually already begun). The Democrats (and their numerous friends in the MSM) will commence a scorched earth campaign against the GOP (and Tea Party conservatives) in an attempt to drive up their opponents negatives prior to the election. They will also try to cloak themselves as “outsiders” who are “interested in jobs, jobs, jobs”, “working hard for you and me”, and saying “we really DON’T hate you, Mr. Small Business and Mr. Corporation – here’s a tax break! Now vote for me…”
In the end, it will all be an EPIC FAIL…
Trent,
You are so right about the Kobiashi Maru. This is why I can’t buy that these people are evil geniuses. They are simple minded dolts who believed all that made-for-afternoon-TV hogwash. They honestly can’t understand why the economy did not take off and why the mass rejection.
Clueless.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/06/AR2010090602957.html?nav=emailpage
Right on time AJ, Richard Cohen calls the American people insane, ignorant, irrational because they dare to reject the Lefts Messiah, who is an utter and complete failure from the gifts to foreign dignitaries to the design of the oval office rug a failure! F
From his stimulus spending to handling of the gulf oil spill same old story, use failed socialist policies.
From his payoffs to auto, teachers, public sector unions to his regulation of small banks allowing his favored (Goldman Sachs) to survive while strangeling the little ones!
Hes’ a failure and its NOT the fault of 48 % of the nation just the FAULT of the 52% who denied reality and elected this false prophet, this emperor sans clothes, this “Cousin Eddie” who vacations on the taxpayer till whilst the nation burns! If their lucky the Dems may have the Unions vote come Nov. that and the blacks woin’t be enough to stop the tsunami that the American People are going to wash them away with!
From now on no union made for me Ford or Foreign they own us anyway, thanks to the liberals and the corrupt union bosses!
Hell ain’t hot enough for these abject failures and Socialist Liberals. Better quit before I get banned!
Just so you know… Joe Miller (Repub) … Alaska … is NOT a slam dunk to get elected… May & I voted in the primary for him mostly against Senator Lisa Murkowski … He is the favorite but slightly vulnerable …
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You can ask Lisa how she feels now about being a huge favorite in the primary … and … left a million$+ unspent of her re-election campaign funds… (saving it for the general election) A million$ will buy a LOT more air and print ad time up here than down south, btw …
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Plus… there is still a chance Lisa will “go rogue” … heh … and jump on Nov ballot as a Libertarian … THAT little scenario “could” split the Repub vote and let the Dem (whoever he is) slip in as well…
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Actually… the Dem is Scott McAdams… Mayor of a small Alaskan town (Sitka pop 8,889)… (sound familiar?)
Toes192on 07 Sep 2010 at 9:00 am
“Just so you know Joe Miller (Repub) Alaska is NOT a slam dunk to get elected May & I voted in the primary for him mostly against Senator Lisa Murkowski He is the favorite but slightly vulnerable”
OK…everyone can contribute to his campaign here…
http://joemiller.us/
What I find interesting is that this is a redistricting year…state governments will find out out if they are getting or losing representatives and will be redrawing their districts. The party in charge on the state level will have a huge effect on Congressional representation for the next ten years, yet there doesn’t seem to be much being written about the color of the political landscape going forward.
Consider. It looks like the GOP will control 30 or more Governorships. Will any of those state houses flip to the GOP from Dem control? What will that mean for redistricting? Will any of those weirdly gerrymandered districts (you know, the ones that look like snakes or have other odd shapes to “preserve” minority representation) end up being reconfigured to a more natural, more competitive district where representatives would actually have to earn votes rather than just being rewarded ’cause they’re, shall we say, melatonin enhanced?
November 2, Judgment Day, is going to have a much more profound effect on our nation’s political future than just throwing the irresponsible bums out. I can hardly wait!
kobiyashi maru – very good! True Character comes to the surface when faced with the no-win scenario, one of the greatest insights those writers ever had. Bush faced his test in the last 6 months of his administration. I differ with several of the specific decisions that were made, but it was admittedly a set of circumstances with no good way out. What will be remembered is that he always faced adversity with quiet courage and dignity, like a Man should.
The contrast gets greater and greater with each passing day.
btw, some religious thinkers would go so far as to say that this principle is why we’re mortal. Of course that’s a question that everyone has to answer for themselves. One thing is certain – sooner or later, every one of us is going to face that test ourselves. We can only strive to live our lives in such a way that those around us are proud of the way in which we face our test when it comes.
The CNN poll is +7 from an adult survey not a likely voter survey. I would say that the likely voter number is +11%R plus or minus 2%. 9-13% lead amongst likely voters.
241-194 come January 2011.
[…] by 13 in generic Congressional ballot – hotair.com 09/07/2010 Obama at 46/52. more… Numerous Polls Predict Huge GOP Gains This November – strata-sphere.com 09/07/2010 The first polls of the election season are coming in and the […]
“Treated like a dog” is not just a flippant expression. It is a carefully chosen expression to engender racial tension. In the South when blacks invoke this expression, its not far from saying are you calling me a n****r.
He is trying to whip up tension.
Trent:
Very insightful. Kobiyashi maru is right.
Good post AJ, and you didn’t have to slam conservatives to get your point across! This is when you are at your best, not because you aren’t critisizing conservatives but because this post is strickly about the Dems and doesn’t require the additional bashing.
I will disagree with them just being dolts, however. I think what has happened in the past years, including Obama’s campaign have been very calculated moves to get us where we are today. The intent was to destroy America as we know it…but he forgot about little old “us.” Neighbors, friends, women, men, the young, workers, the unemployed, the hard working….all pissed off as hell. Hope and Change? How dare he…..
I don’t actually like the Kobiashi Maru comparison.
I’d use one of those “values clarification” exercises left wing professors used on me in university.
“A plague has broken out and every one in the room will get it and die except for 5 people. So which 5 out of 100 people do you save?”
I’d use this because it is the antithesis of a moral character building event. The very act of selecting 5 out of 100 to be saved based upon their usefulness demeans our humanity. It assumes that the end justifies the means and turns something good, surviving the plague, into something evil, mass murder.
I believe that the difference between the Omni-governmentalist (OG) and the Limited-governmentalist (LG) can be boiled down to the fact that the OG believes that the ends justify the means and the LG does not. What the OG cannot or does not see is that this belief turns something that is good – Health Care for the Poor for example, into something evil because in the end, the way they solve this problem is through covetousness, envy, theft and extortion. The OG take something that is good and noble and turn it into something evil. The OG cannot see this because they believe that the end justifies the means. Until they realize that this is not the case they can have no meaningful growth in their character.
Just like the values clarification exercises provided no useful clarification of values the process that the left is about to go through will provide no useful rethinking of their position. They will just get more strident and nastier. The issue for them will be “We didn’t try hard enough to achieve a left wing utopia, or those evil corporate interest or those evil racist or that awful Fox New or “It’s Bush’s Fault!” and possibly “Rush Limbaugh should be banned”
I do not think that you can reason with these people. They operate on an internal logic; a twisted moral compass. They can’t see the truth if beat them over the head with it. Well maybe if you actually hit them over the head with it but you’d have to hit them pretty hard and for a long time.
Either the end is near for the Dems or my head is about ready to explode…
Harry Reid: “I had nothing to do with” bad economy”
Uhhh….can you say 1.3 trillion dollar deficit, healthcare “reform”. tax increases, cap and trade, government corruption and mismanagement at all levels…ARRRGGGGHHHH!
“We didn’t try hard enough to achieve a left wing utopia, or those evil corporate interest or those evil racist or that awful Fox New or “It’s Bush’s Fault!†and possibly “Rush Limbaugh should be bannedâ€
The response to them should be something like…”Ok, suppose Rush got banned, do you expect your utopia to get better? If it doesn’t get better, who will be your next target?”